Saturday, January 27, 2007

Weekly Data Highlight

Macro Indicators [GDP growth, Inflation, Current Account Balance)
[for enlarged version, please click on the picture]

Nepal's economy seems to be stabilizing following massive political upheaval post-2001 Royal massacre. The IMF expects the real GDP to grow at 1.9% in 2006 and 4.2% in 2007. For a country as small and as poor as Nepal (GDP per capita of $322 in 2005), such "Hindu rate of growth" is unacceptable. If large economies like India and China can achieve double-digit growth rates, Nepal certainly can!!!

Nepal's current account balance shows that the country is a remittance-based economy. According to the IMF, current account surplus is going to reach 4.5% of GDP in 2007. Given that Nepal is running a huge trade deficit in goods (see Government secretary expresses concern over huge trade deficit) it must be the service sector trade (i.e. foreign remittances) that's bailing her out. But how sustainable is that in the long-run?









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