Sunday, November 30, 2008

Weekly share update

Nepse in they love it, love it not scenario
ArthaExpress, 29-Nov-08

Nepal Stock Exchange (Nepse) index this week slid to as low as 698.81 points within the last eight months. However, it rebounded and hovered above the 700-point mark to close at 732.18 points on Thursday, the last day of trading.

The market, in its five-day session, wound up in negative territory for the first three days but in the last two days it closed in the green. Nepse closed at 38.19 points lower to slump to 732.18 points from last week’s closing of 770.37 points.

The secondary market opened in the red, losing 19.86 points on Sunday, the first day of trading in the domestic market. Monday also saw a plunge of 24.04 points to touch 726.47 points. Nepse dipped the lowest in the last eight months to 698.81 points on Tuesday but bounced back by 29.76 points to 728.57 points on Wednesday. It gained another 3.61 points on Thursday to close at 732.18 points.

The major market propellers — commercial banks, development banks, hydropower and insurance companies groups — shed 39.84 points to touch 725.10 points, 28.84 points to touch 1075.59 points, 32.52 points to touch 896.68 points and 9.74 points to touch 771.35 points, respectively, pulling Nespe down.

The sensitive index — the barometer of group A companies — also dipped by 6.21 points to slide to 194.56 points. But the float index — calculated on the basis of real transactions — lost only 3.42 points to slide to 72.18 points.

In terms of monetary value, Bank of Kathmandu (with Rs 52.30 million), NIC Bank (with Rs 44.78 million), Nepal Investment Bank (with Rs 21.82 million), Standard Chartered Bank Nepal (with Rs 19.33 million) and Royal Merchant Banking and Finance (with Rs 19.00 million) were this week’s top scorers.

In terms of number of share units traded, Royal Merchant Banking and Finance topped the chart with 45,000-unit shares while in terms of number of transactions Prabhu Finance topped the chart with 372 transactions.

Machhapuchhre Bank and Sagarmatha Insurance listed their 49,29,907-unit and 2,35,620-unit rights shares at Nepse. Clean Energy Development Bank also started distributing its share certificates and will soon list shares at Nepse.

Banks collect 22 percent more deposit in Q1

Banks collect 22 percent more deposit in Q1
ArthaExpress, 28-Nov-08

Nepali commercial banks collected 22 percent more deposit during the first quarter (Q1) of the current fiscal year than they did in the corresponding period last year, according to the unedited financial date released by Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB), the central bank of the country.

The 25 commercial banks in Nepal collected Rs. 450 billion in deposits during the period against the Rs. 351 billion collected during the corresponding period last year. There were only 23 commercial banks during the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2007/08.

The deposit figures for the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2008/09 also included Rs. 37.59 billion in foreign currency and the remaining in domestic currency.

According to NRB, Rastriya Banijya Bank (RBB), the largest bank of the

country, collected the most deposits in the period followed by Nepal Bank Ltd. (NBL). RBB collected Rs. 56.7 billion while NBL collected Rs. 40 billion during the first quarter of this year.

Likewise, collective loans and advances of the commercial banks increased by 25.5 percent during the first quarter of the current fiscal year.

The 25 commercial banks provided loans and advances amounting Rs. 321 billion against Rs. 239 billion provided by the 23 banks in last fiscal year´s first quarter.

Nepal Investment Bank Ltd. was the largest provider of loans and advances during the period with Rs. 31.5 billion followed by Agriculture Development Bank, Nepal (ADBN) with Rs. 31.1 billion, the NRB report said.

Despite being the two largest banks of the country, RBB and NBL didn´t provide the biggest amount of loans and advances as they were tied down by their negative net-worth. The central bank has fixed limitation on loans for banks with negative net-worth.

In the meantime, commercial banks collectively earned a net profit of Rs. 2.59 billion during the period against Rs. 1.91 billion last year. Among the 25 banks, RBB declared the highest net profit amounting Rs. 374 million, followed by Standard Chartered Bank Nepal Ltd (SCBNL) with Rs. 249 billion.

Land reform commission within 15 days

Land reform commission within 15 days
ekantipur, 29-Nov-08

The government on Saturday pledged to form a high level land reform commission with representatives from the protesting landless people within two weeks to solve all problems of the landless.

The protestors have ended their protest after government spokesperson and Minister for Information and Communications Krishna Bahadur Mahara signed a four-point agreement with the National Land Rights Forum (NLRF), the organisation of landless people.

For the past 13 days, 144 landless people from 42 districts had been staging a sit-in protest at the Open Theatre demanding formation of a high-level commission to solve their problems.

"We are hopeful the government will implement the agreement," said Baldev Ram, the chairman of NLRF. "We have withdrawn our protest programmes from today."

"Government will implement the recommendations of the commission and end the existing feudal land ownership system," said Minister Mahara.

"We are serious and committed to solving the problems of landless people."

The commission will identify the tillers, sharecroppers and landless squatters and provide them agricultural land required for their livelihood. It will also have the authority to put a ceiling on land ownership and distribute land holdings above it to the peasants working on them.

It would also recommend ways of comprehensive land redistribution, agricultural assistance and reforms in land administration of the country.

According to Nepal Agricultural Survey 2001, there are 1,037,000 people with less than 0.02 hectares of land. The NLRF has said there are around 217,000 landless people in the country.

In the newly inked agreement, the government has pledged to abrogate the old land act and bring a people-oriented land act addressing the issues related to land.

The high-level commission on land reforms is one of the several commissions yet to be formed as per past agreements between political parties.

Also on Saturday, Minister Mahara assured ex-kamaiyas who were staging a sit-in at the Open Theatre to form a high- level commission to rehabilitate them.

Prime Minister Dahal also assured the agitators that the government would address their demands while meeting with their representatives.

Minister Mahara said that an agreement would be signed with them on Sunday after necessary paperwork is done.

Saturday, November 29, 2008

Strike shuts down Hetauda factories

Strike shuts down Hetauda factories
ekantipur, 28-Nov-08
Pratap Bista

Workers affiliated to Maoist-affiliated All Nepal Trade Union Federation (ANTUF) shut down about five dozen industries located in and outside the Hetauda industrial area on Friday. They took the move, blaming entrepreneurs for not paying salaries as per the directives of the government. Two months ago, the government had directed industries to pay each unskilled worker at least Rs. 4,600 every month. Entrepreneurs say they are in no position to pay this much.

According to Madhav Adhikari, president of Hetauda Chamber of Commerce and Industry (HCCI), the workers have closed down 55 industries. Secretary of Nepal Industrial Workers' Union (NIWU) Krishna Raj Koirala said they were forced to shut down the industries as entrepreneurs didn't make government-fixed payments. The NIWU is affiliated to ANTUF.

Workers began closing down the industries from early morning after the three-day ultimatum given to pressure the industries to hike salaries expired on Thursday.

Eight industries belonging to multinational companies (MNCs) were among those shut. The Colgate Palmolive, whose ownership was transferred to Nepali entrepreneurs, has remained closed for eight days.

Ratna Hari Gautam, manager of Hetauda Industrial Area Management Limited, said closure of the nation's largest industrial zone will result in a daily loss of Rs 6.6 million.

The workers, however, let United Brewery, Superlemikotes, Makwana Biscuit and Nepal Hume Pipe run as these establishments have been making payments in line with the government directive. There are 42 industries inside the industrial area.

Adhikari said he was saddened at the closure of industries although entrepreneurs were willing to hike minimum salaries.

Manager of Trishakti Poly Packs Salikram Goswami said workers closed the industries although the latter had promised to pay hiked salaries after sometime.

He said such strikes might discourage potential investors, who want to set up industries inside the industrial area. Sixteen industrial plants, including five belonging to MNCs, are under construction in the industrial area. The HCCI said the closure of the industries will cost over 10 million daily.

President of NIWU Bishnu Rana Magar said they had no option but to close the industries as HCCI had ignored their demands. "The agitation will continue until the industries pledge to pay us in line with the goverment-fixed scale," he said.

Magar accused the entrepreneurs of not bothering to hold talks with the agitators.

Following the strike at hotels in Nagarkot, FNCCI had reached an agreement with a government talks team led by Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, to sit for talks in Kathmandu on Sunday and find a way out. But the closure of industries in Hetaunda has angered the entrepreneurs. "We could not understand the intention of the government," said FNCCI chairman Kush Kumar Joshi.

"The prime minister talks about parleys while his party-men shut down factories," he added. The FNCCI chairman said the entrepreneurs would not sit for talks until the factories were reopened. "Entrepreneurs have come to the conclusion that they will not be able to run businesses due to prevailing insecurity," he said.

Friday, November 28, 2008

Labour disputes and industrial insecurity are scaring away investors

Disunion
Labour disputes and industrial insecurity are scaring away investors
NepaliTimes, Issue #427 (28-Nov-08 to 4-Dec-08)
Dewan Rai

When the Maoist came into government, many had expected a better business environment and improved security. However, the private sector is reeling under threats and extortion from militant unions that they say is directed by the Maoists.

Biratnagar Jute Mill has been closed since 24 November. Hulas employees are on strike from this week. Asia Distillery shut down this week. Manakamana Cable Car has been closed down for two weeks and is losing Rs 1million a day. Even in remote Mugu, the Gamgadh hydroproject has been closed since two months. The list goes on.

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal had to personally intervene to get the Maoist trade union to call off their indefinite closure of all 60 hotels in Nagarkot that started on Wednesday.

On 20 November, Colgate Palmolive became the latest multinational to close shop in Nepal, citing labour problems as one of its reasons.

The factory was sold to Nepali investors, but the workers didn't let the new management take over.

According to FNCCI, 20 entrepreneurs have been murdered, 53 businessmen kidnapped, 54 companies closed and there have been 62 shutdowns since elections in April.

In September, the cabinet decided to the raise minimum wage of unskilled worker from Rs 3,300 to Rs 4,600. The private sector says this will put them out of business, and is trying to negotiate. The dispute is over whether higher-earning workers should also get a raise in the same proportion.

Maoist Labour Minister Lekhraj Bhatta said negotiations were on and the minimum wage issue would be decided on Sunday. Asked if his party had political reasons to pressure the private sector, Bhatta admitted: "Of course, it is natural for a political party to try to extend its influence."


Rajendra Khetan, the ML assembly member whose brewery was also hit by strikes this week, says workers are being paid as per government rules. He says the current dispute is about politics and has nothing to do with labour. "If this goes on, forget about international investors, there won't be any domestic investment either," he said.

President of FNCCI, Kush Kumar Joshi told a business conference in Pokhara on Thursday that despite the Maoists coming to power, the environment for investment in the country had not improved. "The private sector has become the target of terror, extrortion and threats are becoming unbearable," he said.

Businessmen at the conference said the extortion and decline in business would mean they would no longer be able to pay taxes to the government. "If investors are scared away, the government will not be able to meet its job creation targets," Joshi said.

Indian foreign minister Pranab Mukherjee raised the issue of industrial security and threats against Indian multinationals operating in Nepal when he met Prime Minister Dahal on Tuesday.

The current spate of strikes is also caused by an intense rivalry between unions affliated to the Maoists and the UML. Bishnu Rimal, vice president of the UML-affiliated trade union, GEFONT, denied this. But sources said the Maoist unions broke an agreement with GEFONT not to strike in the tourism sector for three years in response to a party directive.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

NRB tightens monetary policy

NRB tightens monetary policy
Hopes to prevent high risk investment in real estate
ekantipur, 25-Nov-08
Prithvi Man Shrestha

Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB), the country's central bank, is tightening the country's monetary policy to discourage financial institutions from further investing in real estate without considering the risks.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had said Sunday that the loose monetary policy adopted by NRB had, to some extent, contributed to boost real estate prices.

IMF had also warned that decline in real estate prices would have a negative impact on banks and their output growth.

Talking to the Post, NRB Acting Governor Krishna Bahadur Manandhar said the central bank had increased 'risk weight' provisioning to 150 percent in the real estate sector against 100 percent in other portfolios.

He informed that NRB had also increased cash reserve ratio (CRR), the minimum reserves a bank must hold to deposits, to 5.5 percent from five percent to discourage banks and financial institutions from investing in high risk ventures.

NRB said 13 percent of Nepali banks' investment was in the real estate sector, which could not be termed 'massive'.

However, Manandhar said that some banks had invested up to 40 percent in the retail sector. “Especially new banks as well as some old ones have high investment in the retail sector,” he said.

President of Nepal Banker's Association Radhesh Pant was of the view that banks should be more cautious in investing in real estate and NRB should monitor the banks closely.

Banks should make correct valuation of the collateral given that real estate had been witnessing a bubble for the last few years, Pant said.

Pant, who also heads Bank of Kathmandu, stressed the need to diversify investment among various portfolios to minimise risk.

It should be noted that the current global financial crisis started from the real estate sector after financial institutions investing heavily in sub-prime and other high risk mortgages were hit by high rate of defaults after housing prices in the U.S. dropped significantly.

Another concern of IMF was the growing number of financial institutions licensed by NRB, which, it said, was putting NRB's supervisory soundness under strain.

Manandhar said NRB could not prevent any bank from coming into the market if it fulfilled the set criteria.

He said that NRB had increased capital adequacy to Rs. 2 billion for commercial banks just to start their operation from the earlier requirement of Rs. 1 billion in order to discourage the launch of new banks.

“We have also provisioned for disclosure of income sources of new investors in banks,” he said. “And yet, we have failed to stop new banks from coming into the market.”

Three new national level commercial banks and 32 other financial institutions are currently awaiting the central bank's approval, according to NRB. There are 25 national level commercial banks already in operation.

Manadhar was also confident that inflation would decline to a single digit although IMF had predicted it would hover at around 11 percent.

“Inflation has already reached its highest level. It cannot grow at the same level this year,” he said.

“Given the global economic slowdown and the nosedive in petroleum prices, inflation is certain to go down,” he added.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Vision 2020: A Vision for Hydropower Growth

Vision 2020: A Vision for Hydropower Growth
Govt confused about hydel growth: Private sector
ekantipur, 24-Nov-08

Participants in a half-day seminar on 'Vision 2020: A Vision for Hydropower Growth' said on Monday that the government was confused on how to achieve its goal of producing 10,000 MW of power within the next 10 years. The government had prioritised the sector in its policy and programmes, and budget.

"The government has failed to specify how the target will be achieved, which point to start from and where to end," said Gyanendra Lal Pradhan, coordinator of Hydropower Development Forum of the Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industries (FNCCI).

But, director general of the Department of Electricity Development Sriranjan Lacoul said that license had already been issued for the projects to produce about 13,000 MW so far.

Pradhan said the government was yet to take the first steps toward realising its goal although national consensus had been achieved on the fact that the development of the hydropower sector was critical for national development.

He said that the country's existing installed capacity of just 619 MW was too small against the rising demand of energy in the country. The demand for power reaches 720 MW in the peak season, according to Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA).

However, Pradhan was optimistic about the progress. "Much has been achieved over the last five years in the hydropower sector in terms of policy prioritisation," he said.

Banks which were mostly reluctant to invest in the sector, are now eager to pour investment into it, thanks to the growing realisation among them that their investment would be safe in the sector, Pradhan added.

In the hydropower symposium organised by FNCCI to find out ways to realise the target, its president Kush Kumar Joshi stressed on the need on the part of the government to ensure an investment-friendly environment to attract local and foreign investment in the sector.

"The country's saving of about Rs. 200 billion would not be sufficient for generating the targeted power within the next 10 years," he added.

Lauding the government's policy of public private partnership (PPP), he stressed that action should also be directed toward taking the private sector into its confidence.

Reminding about the recent petroleum problems, he stressed that the country should be self sustained on energy.

Minister for Water Resources Bishnu Prasad Poudel said that many foreign investors were interested in investing in Nepal and the government would take appropriate decisions by preparing a transparent base.

Mentioning the government's policy of producing 10,000 MW of power within the next 10 years and electrifying all households of the country, Poudel said that the objective would not be met without attracting local and foreign investors.

He also said that the government would shortly be announcing a package with short-term and long-term measures to address the problem of load shedding by announcing that the 'country is in an energy crisis'.

Monday, November 24, 2008

Real Estate Rate May Cause Banking to Abate, Warns IMF

Real Estate Rate May Cause Banking to Abate, Warns IMF
ArthaExpress, 24-Nov-08

Nepal is over-banked and agressive lending as well as large exposure of the financial sector to real estate could harm the financial health of the country, warned a visiting International Monetary Fund (IMF) team.

"With some 160 licenced deposit-taking institutions, Nepal is over-banked," said Braian J Aitken, Deputy Division Chief of Asia and Pacific department of IMF.

"Aggressive lending practices of many of the financial institutions expose their depositors to excessive risk. This underscores the urgency of significantly ramping up Nepal Rastra Bank´s (NRB) regulatory enforcement," IMF team leader Aitken said adding that the central bank might find it difficult to supervise the increasing number of financial institutions. "Thus, the central bank´s supervisory capacity has to be increased," he added.
IMF has also shown serious concern over the rapidly growing real estate price. "The biggest short-run concern is rapidly growing real estate price. Given the large exposure of the financial sector to real estate, a decline in real estate prices would have negative effects on banks and ultimately on output growth," said the IMF team.

The IMF blames the loose monetary policy for this development in the real estate market. "Development in the real estate market has been fuelled in part by a loose monetary policy," IMF said. "However, NRB recognises the risks and has recently taken some modest steps to tighten monetary policy but more tightening may be needed."

The central bank has announced a cautious Monetary Policy - that was a regular Seventh Policy - for the fiscal year 2008-09 on September 29. NRB has claimed that it has brought a rigid Monetary Policy that has increased the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by half a percentage point to 5.5 per cent. The CRR has been five per cent since 2004.

The IMF team´s visit is focused on the recently approved budget and current financial and macro-economic conditions. The team held marathon discussions with Finance Minister Dr Baburam Bhattarai, finance ministry officials and the acting governor of the central bank over the last two weeks. "Nepal´s macro-economic situation is good but subject to risks. Its outlook broadly remains stable, but the average inflation could increase to around 11 per cent," according to IMF.

This year´s Monetary Policy has also been designed largely to maintain macro-economic stability and price rise control. But it has not been able to crack the whip on rising inflation. "Inflation in Nepal is largely catalysed by conditions in India," said Aitken, adding that Nepal´s inflation could well be called imported.

The IMF also termed the recently approved budget as ambitious. "Revenue is budgeted to increase by 1.75 per cent of the GDP in part based on improved tax administration," the IMF team said. "Higher revenue forecast accomodates a sizable rise in budgeted recurrent spending. The government has taken impressive steps in an effort to achieve its revenue target. Revenue remains buoyant at this stage, but there is still the risk that if planned revenue fails to materialise the sustainability of the budget could be threatened," summed the IMF team that visits Nepal twice a year to access the country´s fiscal and monetary policies.

Nepse’s chin barely above IPO deluge

Nepse’s chin barely above IPO deluge
ArthaExpress, 22-Nov-08

The huge volume of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), bonus and rights shares and debentures of various financial institutions worth billions flooded the secondary market, pulling Nepal Stock Exchange (Nepse) down. This week, Nepse plunged by 36.53 points to 770.37 points from last week’s closure of 806.90 points.

This week’s closing of 770.37 points - from August 31, when Nepse touched a record high of 1175.8 points - is a fall by almost 35 per cent or 405.43 points in these three months. However, market experts do not agree that this whopping fall of 405.43 points is a crash. They blame over-priced Nepal Telecom (NT) shares, book closing of major market propellers — the financial institutions — and deluge of shares in the secondary market for the continuous fall in Nepse.

Nepal Telecom (NT) shares — listed on August 14 — started trading from August 17. NT shares scaled as high as Rs 1400 per unit, pushing Nepse beyond 1100 points - a climb of 300 points. But, as of today NT shares are traded at around Rs 600 per unit - that closed at Rs 629 on Thursday.

NT’s share listing is the largest-ever, worth Rs 15 billion - that was 150 million-unit shares after Butwal Power Company (BPC) listed its 84,00,000-unit shares worth Rs 840 million at the secondary market. After listing of NT shares, the financial institutions dominating the capital market were expected to diversify giving option to investors but these institutions remained the market propellers.

Some experts also see flow-back of money to land from shares. They point out that one of the reasons of the unnatural climb by Nepse was that people had been selling off land and invest the money in shares.

Whatever the reason, there is still the possibility of Nepse further plunging as some of the financial insititutions are yet to announce their book closing. This they will be doing soon.

This week Nepse — in its five-day session — wound up in negative territory for three days. The market opened in the red on Sunday as it plunged by 13.04 points to 793.86 points. On Monday, it dipped further by 19.68 points to 774.18 points.

However, on Tuesday, it rose by 1.81 points to reach 775.99. On Wednesday also, Nepse closed in green while gaining 0.59 point to reach 776.58 points. However, Nepse again plunged by 6.21 points to close at 770.37 points.

In terms of monetary value, Nepal Bangladesh Bank (with Rs 144.10 million), Bank of Kathmandu (with Rs 39.02 million), Nepal Investment Bank (with Rs 27.28 million), Standard Chartered Bank Nepal (with Rs 27.07 million) and Nepal SBI Bank (with Rs 17.59 million) are this week’s top gainers.

In terms of numbers of share units traded and number of transactions also, Nepal Bangladesh Bank topped the chart with 1,99,000-unit shares and 503 transactions. Except the insurance companies group, all other groups wound up in negative territory this week because investors lost confidence.

The contribution of A-category companies this week was only 54.20 per cent and the float index — the real secondary market barometer - lost 2.45 points.

Saturday, November 22, 2008

Global Economic Crisis and Nepal

Global Economic Crisis and Nepal
Nepalnews
By Dr. Kamal Raj Dhungel

Nepal will have insignificant impact of the global crisis because its domestic economic activities are sluggish which implies that it is already in the nearest point of recession. But there will be greater impact from the present global economic crisis. Millions of youths will lose their job in the foreign countries that reduces the remittance.

Recession is an economic term that refers to the phase of business cycle in which the existing policies and activities fail and the economy heads towards crisis. Business cycle is the process in which the economic activities vary around its long term growth trends. The cycle in values shifts over time between periods of relatively rapid growth of output which is termed as the recovery and prosperity. The same cycle later turns into the period of relative stagnation and or decline in economic activities namely the phase of contraction or recession. The occurrence of these phases one after another and their repetition in the short as well as long run is the natural process of business cycle. There are a number of indicators that exhibit particular phase in business cycle but are conventionally measured using the real gross domestic product (GDP).

While dealing with recession it will be relevant to cite here an old proverb - ‘a recession is when your neighbor loses his job and depression is when you lose your own job’. As descried above, recession is the phase of contraction in the business cycle when the economic activities are dawdling. Accordingly, the period of general economic decline specifically the decline in real GDP for two or more consecutive quarters indicates recession. United States of America, Britain, European Nations and even Asian countries including Japan are almost in recession according to the popular rule of thumb of two consecutive quarters of falling GDP.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) also has set a benchmark for recession with real GDP growth rate less than 3 percent implying a world recession. Its world economic outlook published on November 6, 2008 predicts that the world GDP growth would fall 2.2 percent in 2009, based on purchasing power parity (PPP) weights from 5 percent in 2007 and 3.7 percent in 2008. The situation would be more vulnerable in the coming days as some forecasts by private firms are even gloomier, with several now predicting global GDP growth to be no more than 1.5 percent in 2009. Provided the predictions are true, the world is heading into serious trouble.

At this rate, middle income counties are likely to suffer from recession from early 2009. The fast growing economies of East Asia including China and countries of South Asia including India will be affected by the recession sooner or later. Countries of the Middle East and ASEAN will also be affected by the global economic crisis. In return, Nepal’s economy will jeopardise as a result of the dripping in the economic activities of these countries.

Advanced and middle income countries are the main source of livelihood for lower income countries like Nepal. Nepal’s economy in particular depends on agriculture and foreign employment that are significantly providing employment to the growing population. Middle East, East and South Asia, Britain, Euro-zone, Australia, USA, and Canada are the destination countries where millions of youths of Nepal are employed. In recent years, remittance alone from these countries covers over 20 percent of the GDP.

Real estate is the fast growing business sector in domestic economic front of Nepal. A huge chunk of money has been invested in this sector from the private investors by taking loan from banks. The probability of this sector of being paralysed from the present crisis is high because there is a high correlation between the real estate business and remittance. Past experiences have proved that almost all the remittances have been invested in this sector in the urban areas of the country. If our youths lose foreign employment, their income will diminish as a result of which they will lose their capacity to buy real estate in a greater scale. Consequently, this sector will be affected faster than the others.

Reduction of poverty depends on the remittance as Nepal Living Standard Survey of 2003/04 revealed that the poverty reduced from 42 percent at the beginning of Ninth Plan period (1997) to 31 percent in 2003/04. Amidst the intensive conflict persisting during the period that slowed domestic economic activities, country achieved remarkable progress in reducing poverty. This achievement was not the gift of the domestic economic progress but a result of the remittance. In this juncture, the poverty reduction strategy of the nation will be affected by the global economic crisis.

Nepal will have insignificant impact of the global crisis because its domestic economic activities are sluggish which implies that it is already in the nearest point of recession. But there will be greater impact from the present global economic crisis. Millions of youths will lose their job in the foreign countries that reduces the remittance. Youths will return home because destination countries might probably ban foreign employees to secure their own jobless people. In essence, foreign employment sector will get more vulnerable which will have huge impact on the Nepalese economy.

Dhungel is Associate Professor, Central Department of Economics, Tribhuvan University. He can be contacted at: kamal.raj.dhungel@gmail.com.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Hydro Fund to empower sleeping hydropower promoters

Hydro Fund to empower sleeping hydropower promoters
ekantipur, 19-Nov-08
Bikash Thapa

There’s really good news for hydropower promoters who hold survey licenses for power projects, but have not carried out even the feasibility study for their projects for a long time due to the lack of financial resources: a fund is going to be set up, with the sole aim of helping them in the power production process—from carrying out the feasibility study to actually constructing the projects.

With the technical support from the South Asia Regional Initiative for Energy (SARI/Energy) under USAID, the ‘Hydro-Fund’ will start operating from next week. The fund, first of its kind in the country, hopes to support the construction of some 40 power projects within the next two years.

The fund is being set up in the leadership of Clean Energy Development Bank Limited (CEDBL)—established two years ago to invest in hydroelectricity and renewable energy—collecting capital from various Nepali investors.

The fund that will have over Rs 300 million will invest in the projects producing up to 50 Megawatt (MW) hydroelectricity, according to Dr Janak Lal Karmacharya, the chief of the Hydro-Unit of CEDBL. However, the fund can also extend its support to compelling projects that could generate more than 50MW.

According to the Department of Electricity Development (DoED), survey licenses for projects expected to generate 6600MW electricity have already been issued. However, only 550MW hydroelectricity has been generated as yet. The country has been facing the current load-shedding due to a shortage of 60 to 80MW electricity every year.


There are 133 projects that have obtained licenses for less than 1MW electricity production. Similarly, DoED has issued licenses for 266 projects, each expected to produce more than 1MW.

Dr Karmacharya pointed out the dearth of equity for the current slackness in the country’s hydropower sector. “We will invest in the projects that get selected, from carrying out their feasibility studies to the construction process,” he said.

According to Dr Karmacharya, the Hydro-Fund plans to start the projects that are economically and technically feasible, have physical infrastructure for the transmission of the electricity generated and have access roads. “Many promoters are shying away from production due to the lack of funds,” he said.

Dr Karmacharya, a former managing director of Nepal Electricity Authority, informed that it costs about Rs 3 million just for the feasibility study of a 5 MW project. The greater the scope of the project, the more is the cost of its feasibility study.

“After the feasibility study, viable projects will be funded by the bank through the Hydro Fund to support their loan and equity portion,” said Manoj Goyal, the chief executive officer of CEBDL. According to him, the bank will avail up to 70 per cent loan for a project.

The Netherlands Development Finance Company (FMO) has 40 per cent share in the CEDBL.

According to Goyal, the capital required will be managed from the Mekong Brahmaputra Clean Development Fund (MBCDF). The CEDBL and the MBCDF have agreed to invest up to 100 million USD in Nepal’s energy sector. The CEBDL has provisioned two funds targeting the hydroelectricity projects that have not started yet due to dearth of financial resources.

Dr Karmacharya informed that the license holders can become shareholder if they desire after the completion of the project. “The ones who invest can get share of the project if they want,” said he.

Noting that the lack of funds for carrying out the feasibility study bothers promoters the most, Krishna Prasad Bhandari, member of Small Hydropower Development Association, welcomed the establishment of the Hydro-Fund, which he said will be instrumental in finding a solution to the capital crunch.

Meltdown in Nepal

Meltdown in Nepal
eKantipur, 19-Nov-08
DR. KAMAL RAJ DHUNGEL

Recession is an economic term that refers to the phase of the business cycle in which the existing policies and activities fail, and the economy heads towards a crisis. A business cycle is a process in which economic activities vary around its long-term growth trends. The cycle in values shifts over time between periods of relatively rapid growth of output, which is termed as recovery and prosperity. The same cycle later turns into a period of relative stagnation or decline in economic activities, namely, the phase of contraction or recession.

The occurrence of these phases one after another and their repetition in the short as well as long run is a natural process of the business cycle. There are a number of indicators that exhibit particular phases in the business cycle, but they are conventionally measured using the real gross domestic product (GDP).

While dealing with recession, it is relevant to cite an old proverb, "A recession is when your neighbour loses his job, and depression is when you lose your own job." Recession is the phase of contraction in the business cycle when economic activities are slow. Accordingly, a period of general economic decline, specifically a drop in real GDP for two or more consecutive quarters, indicates recession.

The United States, Britain, the European Union and even Asian countries including Japan are almost in recession according to the rule of thumb of two consecutive quarters of falling GDP.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also set a benchmark for recession which is a growth rate of less than 3 percent in real GDP implying a world recession. Its world economic outlook published on Nov. 6, 2008 predicts that the world GDP growth rate would fall to 2.2 percent in 2009 based on purchasing power parity (PPP) weights from 5 percent in 2007 and 3.7 percent in 2008.

Private firms are forecasting an even gloomier situation in 2009 with a number of them predicting that global GDP growth would be no more than 1.5 percent. If the predictions are true, the world is heading for serious trouble.

At this rate, middle-income countries are likely to suffer from recession from early 2009. The fast growing economies of East Asia including China and the countries of South Asia including India will be affected by the recession sooner or later. The Middle East and ASEAN will also be affected by the global economic crisis. Nepal's economy will be jeopardized as a result of the drop in the economic activities of these countries.

Advanced and middle-income countries are the main sources of livelihood for lower-income countries like Nepal. The country's economy in particular depends on agriculture and foreign employment which provide massive employment to the growing population. The Middle East, East and South Asia, Britain, Euro-zone, Australia, the USA and Canada are the places where hundreds of thousands of Nepali youths are employed. In recent years, remittances from these countries alone account for over 20 percent of the GDP.

Real estate is a fast growing business sector on Nepal's domestic economic front. Private investors have sunk big money into land and buildings by borrowing from banks. The probability of this sector becoming paralyzed by the present crisis is high because there is a high correlation between the real estate business and remittances. Past experience proves that almost all the money from remittances has been invested in this sector in urban areas. If our youths lose their foreign jobs, their income will diminish as a result of which they will lose their capacity to buy real estate on a greater scale. Consequently, this sector will be affected faster than others.

Reduction of poverty depends on remittances. According to the Nepal Living Standard Survey of 2003/04, poverty decreased from 42 percent at the beginning of the Ninth Plan period (1997) to 31 percent in 2003/04. Despite the protracted violent conflict that marked the period and consequent slowdown in the economy, the country achieved remarkable progress in reducing poverty. This achievement was not made possible by domestic economic progress but remittances. At this juncture, the nation's poverty reduction strategy will be affected by the global economic crisis.

The global economic crisis will have a serious impact on Nepal. Thousands of youths will lose their jobs in foreign countries resulting in reduced remittances. These young people will return home because the countries where they work will probably ban foreign employees to protect their own jobless. In essence, the foreign employment sector will become more vulnerable which will have a huge impact on the Nepali economy.

The writer is an associate professor at the Central Department of Economics, Tribhuvan University.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Weekly share update : Gloom as Nepse tumbles

Weekly share update : Gloom as Nepse tumbles
ArthaExpress, 15-Nov-08

Nepal Stock Exchange (Nepse) index continued its downward spiral to lose 25.69 points this week and close at 806.90 points compared to last week’s closing mark of 832.59 points, casting a pall of gloom over the market.

Unlike other weeks, this week of the regular five-day session Nepse closed two in green and three in the red.

Nepse opened in the red on Sunday and lost 21.78 points to close at 810.81 points. It dropped to as low as 779.78 points on Monday but jumped back to 802.11 points on Tuesday.

On Wednesday also, Nepse gained 13.52 points but closed at 806.90 points, 8.73 points below Wednesday’s closing.

In terms of monetary value, Nepal Bangladesh Bank (with Rs 43.14 million), Bank of Kathmandu (with Rs 41.76 million), Standard Chartered Bank Nepal Ltd (with Rs 37.02 million), Nepal Investment Bank (with Rs 32.49 million) and Nabil Bank (with Rs 30.93 million) were this week’s top performers.

In terms of number of shares transacted, Malika Bikas Bank topped the chart with 55,000-unit shares transacted. In terms of number of transactions, Nepal Bangladesh Bank hit the high spot with 331 transactions.
The market propellers — commercial and development banks, finance companies and insurance groups — also demonstrated a mixed performance this week and barely managed to keep Nepse afloat. Nepse’s 800-point mark seems to be the lowest for it, currently.

In general, experts have claimed that there is a concentration risk in the only secondary market that is dominated by financial institutions. The real sector has negligible share in the Nepse, and that is making it even more vulnerable.

Addressing an interaction on ‘Empowering Stock Market Investors,’ organised today by the National Investors’ Protection Forum, Nepal Bankers’ Association president Radhesh Pant said that the investors needed to be educated. “They should invest only after considering the future prospects of the company,” he suggested.

Dr Chiranjivi Nepal, chairman of the regulatory authority of capital, also urged the investors to be careful and not act in haste. “The Securities Board of Nepal has brought in various regulations to protect investors,” he said adding, “But, enforcement is the key.”

Meanwhile, Nepse also organised an interaction programme between listed companies and share brokers to solve the problem of immediate share certificate transfers. There have been frequent complaints that share registrars delay the share certificate transfer process.

Inflation hits 14pc, wages up 9 percent

Inflation hits 14pc, wages up 9 percent
ekantipur, 17-Nov-08

Driven by a significant rise in food and beverage prices besides non-food and services, inflation based on consumer price index swelled to 14.1 percent in mid-October 2008 against 6.3 percent during the corresponding period in the previous year.

Inflation was higher in mid-October than in mid-September when prices had gone up by 13.5 percent.

Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) said in a statement on Monday that inflation had more than doubled in the review period this year as the food and beverage group witnessed a 15.2 percent rise in prices and the non-food and service group went up by 12.9 percent.

Their prices had gone up by 9.5 percent and 2.9 percent respectively during the period last year.

Sugar products became dearer by 39.5 percent while the price of oil and ghee-based products shot up by 35.4 percent. Sugar had gone down by 18.4 percent in the review period last year. Oil and ghee had witnessed a price rise of 12.8 percent.

The price index of transport and communication and building materials soared by 23.1 and 18.3 percent respectively this year against minus 0.5 and 2.5 percent last year.

Core inflation rose to 13.1 percent from 4.7 percent during the review period a year ago, NRB said.

However, the overall wholesale price inflation moderated to 9.3 percent in mid-October this year against 10.3 percent a year ago. The moderation was caused mainly by a decline in the prices of cash crops, fruits and vegetables despite a sharp price rise in imported commodities. This year, the price of agricultural commodities fell by 0.5 percent compared to 14.1 percent last year.

Among imported goods, petroleum products and coal went up 39.4 percent while vehicle and machinery prices increased by 30.4 percent.

With regard to domestic manufactured goods, food-related products and construction materials soared by 21.5 and 18.9 percent respectively. Their prices had risen by 5.9 and 15.5 percent last year.

The overall index of salaries and wages rose by 9.1 percent in the review period this year against 11.9 percent last year.

Saturday, November 15, 2008

Rough road ahead for banks

Rough road ahead for banks
ArthaExpress, 2-Nov-08

Fierce competition is likely to erupt in Nepal’s banking sector. At a time when the market pie has not increased and over four dozen industries are lying closed across the country, the rise in number of financial institutions is leading to cut-throat competition in the domestic banking sector.

Apart from over a half dozen financial institutions — including B-class development banks and C-class finance companies — the entry of two ‘big’ A-class commercial banks will not only swell the number to 27 but also force them to look for new investment avenues.

The proposed Peoples’ Bank Nepal Ltd — the 26th commercial bank — got the green signal on September 25. Mero Bank Ltd — the 27th commercial bank — also recently got permission from Nepal Rastra Bank to operate after it deposited five per cent of its paid up capital with the central bank.

“Right after we get the operating licence, we’ll start operations,” said Dr Duman Thapa, coordinator of Mero Bank Ltd.

With an authorised capital of Rs 4 billion and paid up capital of Rs 2.45 billion, the proposed Mero Bank Ltd has a total of 1,328 promoters.

“The promoters have 70 per cent share — Rs 1.71 billion — and the rest 30 per cent share — Rs 730 million — will be floated among the public within one year of the bank beginning operations,” Thapa added.

The bank that consists of five groups of promoters has industrialists, businessmen, social workers, Non-Resident Nepalis (NRNs), economists, diplomats, private school promoters, professors, doctors, lawyers, engineers and tourism entrepreneurs.

A 13-member coordinating committee has been formed, with Dr Thapa as coordinator and Dr Govinda Nepal, Bhoj Bahadur Shah, Muktiram Pandey, Gopal Khadka, Gopal Khanal, Rameshwor Sapkota, Indra Bahadur Malla, Bijay Sambahamphe, Madan Acharya, Ishwor Gurung, Parmeshwor Panta, Sabhu Bikram Thapa and Tulsi Pokhrel as members.

Prof Dr Madan Kumar Dahal is chairman of the proposed bank that has - for the first time in the banking history of Nepal - an advisory council headed by former minister and diplomat Dr Bhesh Bahadur Thapa as its chairman.

People’s Bank Nepal Ltd has a paid up capital of Rs 2 billion. “It is the first bank having Rs 2 billion paid up capital after the central bank increased the paid up capital limit for commercial banks,” according to the bank.

The bank, with 898 promoters, has Guru Prasad Neupane as its chairman while Sailendra Guragain, Keshav Bahadur Rayamajhi, Dharmadhoj Parajuli, Nirmaljyoti Tuladhar and Chiranjeevi Dwa are its promoters.

The bank is expected to come into operation by the second week of next April.

Licensed Commercial Banks
• Nepal Bank Ltd (November 15, 1937)
• Rastriya Banijya Bank (January 23, 1966)
• Nabil Bank Ltd (July 16, 1984)
• Nepal Investment Bank Ltd (February 27, 1986)
• Standard Chartered Bank Nepal Ltd (January 24, 1986)
• Himalayan Bank Ltd (January 18, 1993)
• Nepal SBI Bank Ltd (July 7, 1993)
• Nepal Bangladesh Bank Ltd
• Everest Bank Ltd (October 18, 1994)
• Bank of Kathmandu Ltd (March 3, 1995)
• Nepal Credit and Commerce Bank (October 14, 1996)
• Lumbini Bank Ltd (July 17, 1998)
• NIC Bank Ltd (July 21, 1998)
• Kumari Bank Ltd (April 3, 2001)
• Machhapuchhre Bank Ltd (October 3, 2000)
• Laxmi Bank Ltd (April 3, 2002)
• Siddhartha Bank Ltd (December 24, 2002)
• Agriculture Development Bank Ltd
• Global Bank Ltd (January 2, 2007)
• Citizens’ International Bank Ltd (April 20, 2007)
• Prime Commercial Bank (September 24, 2007)
• Bank of Asia Nepal Ltd (October 12, 2007)
• Sunrise Bank Ltd (October 12, 2007)
• Development Credit Bank Ltd (Upgraded in 2007)
• NMB Bank Ltd (Established in 1996/Upgraded in 2007)

We want to use donor support for self sustaining growth: Dr. Bhattarai

We want to use donor support for self sustaining growth: Dr. Bhattarai
Nepalnews, 14-Nov-08

Finance minister Dr Baburam Bhattarai has said that the Maoist led government wants to use donor support for building the process of self sustaining growth in Nepal.

Addressing the donors meet in Kathmandu on Friday, finance minister Bhattarai said the government had already set out policies in the budget and urged the donors to prepare their programmes accordingly.

Stating the government's major concern has been relief and rehabilitation, free education and easy access to health services for poor people, he was of the view that the development process was 'donor driven', and not fruitful for both sides.

He said it was mutual responsibility of both donors and government to make best use of money given to Nepal and stressed on the need of fusion between aid bureaucracy and the country's bureaucracy.

The current change made people politically sovereign, now we want make people sovereign economically, he added.

He further said though Nepal has been receiving foreign assistance since 1950s, it has not been associated high growth rate due to lack of good policies, weak institutional capacity and inactive civil society.

Representatives of different donor agencies participated in the meeting.

For VAT it's worth

For VAT it's worth
eKantipur, 12-Nov-08
AMRIT P. SHRESTHA

Globally, “money minting machine” is a familiar name given to VAT (value-added tax) by its experts. It brings the entire value addition chain down to distribution under its ambit, and is known as an offsetting non-cascading levy. This taxation system has been accepted universally because of its popularity, catch-up effect and self-polishing nature. It is also free from cascading and pyramiding and is a broad-based tax. The industrialization of Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea was made possible by their tax policies based on the VAT concept.

In Nepal, among the chief reasons for introducing VAT was providing incentives for increased productivity, industrialisation and creating an investment climate through the policy of refund and zero rate on export.

Unfortunately, VAT has not been enhancing the economic process as envisaged in Nov. 1997. In the present scenario, the system is at a crossroads because of professional ignorance, tax dodging tendencies, embezzlement and political turmoil. The system has not gone away completely, but it has merely been pushed to the sidelines.

The following mechanisms adopted by Nepal are fully contradictory to VAT concepts, and these barriers have to come down.

1) The government is generating revenue through coercion. This is state terrorism. Nepal has slipped several notches in Transparency International's ranking of the most corrupt nations on earth. However, no revenue or enforcement agency of the government has bothered to unearth the facts.

2) Refunds are an integral part of VAT. Nepal adopted the refund system to help big exporters on whom the economy relies. It was intended to boost capital flow into the country through the mechanism of zero rate which can influence investment prospects. Turning Nepal into a zone of good taxation could give a big impetus to economic growth. Unfortunately, the procedures are ambiguous and torturous. Tax officers have been auditing without basic knowledge and academic background. The answer to a particular query differs from one tax officer to another because of professional ignorance.

3) Operating manuals are most important for maintaining transparency. And both tax officials and taxpayers need to consult them. But the available guidebooks are incomplete and do not provide the required detailed information on the obligations of taxpayers.

l The compliance rate is very low compared to the number of registered taxpayers. The poor compliance rate is directly linked to procedural hassles during tax collection, poor surveillance and unofficial trade. We must do everything necessary to make tax paying convenient and achieve the highest degree of voluntary compliance.

4) The tax rate has been increased time and again for nothing. The government should weigh its action thoroughly before increasing the tax rate. International experience tells us that gradually lowering taxes is a more effective way to achieve the desired goals than increasing them.

5) Sham transactions are one of the invisible parasites robbing VAT blind. Sham transactions are intended to create the appearance that one transaction took place, whereas in fact more than one transaction or no transaction took place. The pathology of this crisis is that unless you get ahead of it and deal with it from a position of strength, it devours the weakest link in the chain and then moves on to devour the next weakest link. VAT may be thought of as a series of processes making up a chain. Each process is a link in the chain, and it is the strength of the weakest link that determines the strength of the whole chain.

6) A multiple-rate tax structure is a prime concern for the business community. Traders have been pushing for a four-tier taxation system. It has been seen globally that a multiple-rate structure distorts the choices of both consumers and producers and favours certain big business houses. The rate should be maintained for a long time for the sake of transparency and it must be incorporated in the VAT Act itself. Constant policy changes have also been an obstacle to enforcement of VAT and hurt revenue generation.

We are in transition to a new economic model. For a nation like ours, which is weighed down by solvable problems, economics only becomes meaningful when it results in a better quality of life for the masses. Immediate miracles are not possible, but pragmatic and sustainable efforts should be made to bring prosperity to the country. Sweeping and radical reform is needed in VAT to push the economy forward. Let's see how our responsible leaders translate their promises into action.

(The writer is a former director of VAT and a financial management expert for UNDP in Tanzania.

Remittances soar 74pc, exports rebound: NRB

Remittances soar 74pc, exports rebound: NRB
ekantipur, 7-Nov-08

Nepal has witnessed a strong growth in remittance inflow and exports -- two critical sectors of the economy -- in the first two months of the current fiscal year, says a report of Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB).

During the period, the country received Rs. 31.88 billion in remittances from Nepalis working abroad. The figure is a whopping 74 percent rise over the receipts for the same period last year.

The gain has been attributed to an increase in the number of Nepalis leaving for overseas jobs and also to depreciation of the Nepali rupee vis-à-vis the US dollar. During the two months, the number of Nepali foreign workers grew by 17.75 percent and the Nepali currency lost value by 6.48 percent.

Likewise, the country’s total exports bounced back by more than one-third and touched Rs. 13.46 billion in the first two months of 2008/09, compared to a decline of 3 percent in the same period last year.

Of the total exports, sales to India -- Nepal’s largest market - went up by over 12 percent to reach Rs. 7.28 billion. Exports to other countries also soared by 82 percent and amounted to Rs. 6.17 billion.

The NRB report released on Friday has credited the rise to an upsurge in exports of readymade garments, copper wire, tooth paste and zinc sheets to India and increased sales of Nepali pulses, woollen carpets, herbs and pashmina in other countries.

Propelled by strong consumption on the back of greater remittances, Nepal’s total imports also rose by 43.3 percent during the period and touched Rs. 48.22 billion.

“Imports from India grew by over 34 percent to Rs. 26.85 billion and from other countries by 56.5 percent to Rs. 21.37 billion,” says the report.

With imports growing faster than exports, the country’s trade deficit swelled by over 46 percent to reach Rs. 34.76 billion.

The report portrays a gloomy picture for consumers, as consumer inflation rose to 13.5 percent in mid-September 2008 compared to mid-September 2007. Prices of food items and beverages increased by 14.2 percent while non-food items and services went up by 12.8 percent during the period.

“A sharp rise in prices were recorded in the case of sugar, oil, ghee, grains, rice, pulses, restaurant meals, milk and milk products, meat, fish and eggs and spices,” says the report.

The cost of transportation and communication and housing goods and services rose by 23.1 percent and 18.1 percent respectively in mid-September 2008 compared to a year ago.

Govt proposes income source info for property buys

Govt proposes income source info for property buys
ekantipur, 5-Nov-08
PRABHAKAR GHIMIRE

If the Cabinet approves what Finance Minister Dr. Baburam Bhattarai proposed Wednesday, people buying land and buildings worth Rs. 5 million or more will soon have to disclose their income sources.

Those spending Rs. 2.5 million or more to own a house and Rs. 1.5 million or more on a vehicle purchase will also need to disclose their income sources.

The spending ceiling, consumption beyond which will have to go through the government's income screening, will come into effect as soon as the Cabinet endorses the proposal, said Dr. Bhattarai, unveiling the proposal for the first time Wednesday.

He had incorporated a policy of screening people's incomes while procuring expensive land, houses and vehicles in the budget for the current fiscal year. The policy had drawn criticism from the business community.

Dr. Bhattarai, however, defended it as a move to discourage tax evasion and to maintain transparency in property dealings. "Our aim is to establish fairness in the operation of the property market and check tax evasion," he told the press.

The finance minister further disclosed that the Ministry of Finance (MoF) has already prepared guidelines for regulating transactions in property.

He further said that MoF has drafted a manual to give legal identity to the Voluntary Disclosure of Income Scheme (VDIS) -- a programme announced in the budget for the current fiscal year -- in order to encourage tax payers to declare their income sources on their own.

A separate legal provision on VDIS is being formulated on the back of bad experience of a few years back when the Commission for Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA) -- the government's anti-graft body -- refused to recognise incomes that taxpayers disclosed.

Under the scheme, the government had collected about Rs 1 billion in revenue, which was 10 percent of the total property that taxpayers disclosed voluntarily.

''Taxpayers’ voluntary declaration of income will not face any hassle now. We are formulating a law to give them recognition,'' Dr. Bhattarai stated. ''I also assure you that no action will be taken against taxpayers who declare their incomes voluntarily,'' he added.

Responding to experts' scepticism about the government is ability to mobilize the targeted volume of revenue, Dr. Bhattarai said that revenue collection has shot up by 24.3 percent to Rs. 26.24 billion during the first three and half months of the current fiscal year. The government has set a revenue target of Rs. 141 billion in 2008/09.

The ministry has also prepared a manual for implementing budgetary programmes like waiver of loans and interests on loans as announced in the budget.

Inflation hits 13.5 percent

Inflation hits 13.5 percent
ekantipur, 3-Nov-08

Driven by a significant rise in the prices of foods and beverages as well as non-food items and services, inflation based on consumer price index rose to 13.5 percent in mid-September 2008 from 7 percent recorded last year.

Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB), the central bank, said in a statement that food and beverage prices swelled to a whopping 14.2 percent from 10.9 percent in the review period.

The price rise in the non-food and service group was recorded at 12.8 percent compared to 2.8 percent a year earlier. Core inflation rose to 12.1 percent from 5.4 percent previously. However, NRB said inflation according to the wholesale price index softened to 10.3 percent in mid-September compared to 11.1 percent a year earlier.

“The moderation was due mainly to a decline in the prices of cash crops, fruits and vegetables under the agricultural commodities group in spite of an increase in the rates of imported commodities,” the bank added in the statement.

Prices of agricultural commodities and manufactured goods increased by 0.7 percent and 15.8 percent respectively compared to 16.6 percent and 7.8 percent.

The bank also said the overall salary and wage rate index soared by 9.2 percent in mid-September compared to a rise of 12.5 percent a year ago. Regarding salary and wage rate indices, the salary index remained unchanged in the review period compared to a rise of 10.9 percent in the corresponding period last year. The wage rate index went up by 12.3 percent compared to 13.1 percent recorded last year.

Wages of agricultural, industrial and construction labourers shot up by 19.5 percent, 2.7 percent and 8.9 percent respectively in the review period. The increment in wage rates last year was recorded at 9.1 percent, 19.4 percent and 13.2 percent respectively.

More Nepalis heading abroad for jobs

More Nepalis heading abroad for jobs
ekantipur, 26-Oct-08

Indicating fewer job opportunities in the country due to a slowdown in the economy, the number of Nepali workers seeking their fortunes overseas went up by 10.9 percent during the first quarter of the current fiscal year 2008/09 as compared to the same period last year.

The destination of most of these jobseekers is the Gulf and Malaysia where a booming real estate sector, rapid expansion in infrastructure and flourishing industries continue to drive demand for blue-collar workers.

According to the data provided by the Department of Labour and Employment Promotion, the number of blue-collar workers departing for different countries during the period mid-July to mid-October rose to 62,769 individuals from 56,589 individuals during the corresponding period of the last fiscal year.

The number of workers headed for Qatar -- the highest-paying destination -- shot up by 11 percent to 22,655 individuals during the period.

Foreign employment entrepreneurs said rapid development of infrastructure and increasing construction projects continued to attract a sizable number of Nepali workers to Qatar.

Malaysia, the second largest destination for Nepal’s migrant labour force, saw a 3 percent rise in arrivals from 13,538 individuals recorded during the same period last year.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) received 9,019 workers, up 2 percent from 8,809 workers recorded last year.

The number of departures to Saudi Arabia went up by 19 percent to 12,643.

The four major recipient countries -- Qatar, Malaysia, the UAE and Saudi Arabia -- accounted for more than 92 percent of the departures during the period.

A monthly breakdown shows 19,697 departures to various countries during the period mid-September to mid-October, down from 20,245 departures recorded during the previous month.

Qatar maintained its position as the most sought destination receiving 7,529 workers while Saudi Arabia came second taking in 4,953 workers. The number of departures to the UAE and Malaysia reached 2,198 and 3,977 respectively during the month.

PPP is right development approach

PPP is right development approach
ekantipur, 23-Oct-08

The government and the private sector have concluded that Public Private Partnership (PPP) was necessary to spur involvement of the private sector in the nation building process at a time when the government is reeling under resource constraints.

At the end of a 2-day PPP symposium, they also agreed to work together in key sectors like education, infrastructure, health, tourism, hydropower and agriculture for their rapid development. Different ministries have also expressed commitment to eliminate legal and administrative predicaments to encourage involvement of the private sector in those sectors.

Presenting a conclusion paper on Thursday, Rajendra Bahadur Shrestha, advisor of PPP National Conference said PPP was the right instrument to enhance investment and increase technological inputs in health, tourism, agriculture, infrastructure, hydropower, education and other sectors.

“There were no second thoughts on the importance of PPP for development efforts and effective service delivery. But what we need is a conducive environment and favourable policy plus a hassel-feee bureaucratic system,” said Shrestha.

Representatives from the private sector pointed out lack of clear and stable government policy and supportive rules and regulations; lack of political consensus and traditional bureaucratic mentality as a the major obstacles in implementing the PPP concept in the country.

Federation of Nepalese Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FNCCI) President Kush Kumar Joshi said the private sector was ready to work with the government under the concept of PPP by participating in different development activities and the service sector.

“The concept of PPP will be effective in sectors where the government is lacking in resources and technology,” Joshi said. “But we want the government to play a catalyst’s role in this regard.”

National Planning Commission Vice Chairman Dr. Pitamber Sharma stressed on the need to link the agriculture sector with the industrial sector so as to encourage commercialisation in this sector.

“We can not get separate the agriculture sector from the private sector as farmers are also a non-government force. So development of agriculture depends on how it is linked with the industry,” said Sharma.

Representatives of the private sector also underlined the need to initiate export of pharmaceutical products, commercialisation of agriculture and increase private investment by formulating a clear and stable policy on PPP.

The 2-day symposium was organised jointly by the government, FNCCI and UNDP in a bid to explore common consensus between the private sector and the government on PPP. More than a dozen working papers were presented during the symposium attended by about 700 participants.

Elaborating the rationale of PPP in the education sector, Joint Secretary at the Ministry of Education and Sports Lekhanath Poudel said the PPP concept was crucial to increase management capacity, promote innovation, and generate resources.

He also informed that the government was coming up with different forms of PPP in education under the School Sector Reform Plan-2008 where community management for basic education, cost sharing for higher education, cooperative schools, management contracts and school choice will be taken as major policy options.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Quarterly accounts a must-show

Quarterly accounts a must-show
ArthaExpress, 12-Nov-08

Every listed company will have to mandatorily submit its accounts to the Securities Board of Nepal (Sebon) on a quarterly basis from now on, according to the Share Registration and Issue Regulation 2065.

“Any company failing to do so will face stern action,” said Dr Chiranjivi Nepal, chairman of the Sebon, the regulatory authority of capital market that has been given enough teeth to safeguard investors’ interests.

Sebon was busy since a year working out the modality to make listed institutions more transparent and inform investors about companies they have invested in. Director on the board Niraj Giri said a company posting profit for at least two fiscals in the last five years and per share networth more than per share paid-up can further issue IPOs.

“The new regulation has also cleared confusion over share issuance on premium,” Dr Nepal said adding that a company can sell its shares adding premium not more than its networth per share verified by the external experts and due diligent audit.

The new regulation is the fifth one brought by the board this year.

Power outage to go up during winter

Power outage to go up during winter
ekantipur, 12-Nov-08

The coming dry season is going to witness 14-hour load shedding a day, according to a senior official of Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA).

The NEA is planning to enforce 10-hour-long load shedding a day during coming December and that would be extended up to 14 hours a day during February 2009, said Sher Singh Bhat, system operations director at the public utility, at an interaction organised here on Wednesday.

He argued that there was no alternative to increasing the load-shedding hours as the demand would rise to its peak in February while the total electricity generation during the same time would be reduced to mere 250 MW in total.

The demand for electricity at the present stands at 700 MW while the generation has decreased to 404 MW from 613 MW till some weeks ago, according to him.

About 350 MW power will be added to the national grid upon the completion of the Upper Tamakoshi and Chameli Power projects. "But that will make no difference in the power-cut schedule as electricity from the projects will be directly supplied to industrial areas," he said.

The government had planned to generate 315 MW of additional electricity during the tenth five-year plan. But, only 35 MW of electricity was added during the period.

He said the faulty government policy on generation and distribution of electricity also further complicated the power deficit scenario.

Finance Minister Dr. Baburam Bhattarai in this year's budget announced an ambitious target of generating 10,000 MW of hydropower in the next 10 years. "It is not possible without making improvements in the national policy," Bhat said.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Dr. Bhattarai and capital market

Dr. Bhattarai and capital market
ekantipur, 11-Nov-08
Dr. Raghab D Pant

The speech made by the Minister of Finance Dr. Babu Ram Bhattarai, reportedly the No. 2 man of the CPN(Maoist), on Nov. 4 while inaugurating the Elite Merchant Bank is worth reading. The only problem (detail in a minute) with the speeches of Maoist leaders is that it is not taken seriously by many. The reason is simple: They are well known for giving speeches to please the present audience with little concern about the implications.

Dr. Bhattarai's speeches on economic issues are of different kinds, relatively speaking. It is, however, difficult to draw definite conclusion from the consistency test. A definite gap is easy to notice between the promises made and the policy or programmes pursued. His speech, for example, given at the World Bank-IMF meeting was very formal. But at the same time, it is reported in the press that the Nepali delegation, headed by the Minister of Finance himself, has indicated its need to borrow from the International Monetary Fund under Poverty Reduction Growth Facility (PRGF).

The loan under PRGF is used by the developing member countries of the IMF only in case of severe financial problems. The loan is available with a nominal service charge. On the contrary, the policy-makers have to accept severe conditionality imposed by IMF. In fact, our domestic financial policy will be dictated by IMF.

It is reported in the press that a mission from IMF is coming this month for detailed discussions. Are we facing financial crisis? If not, why is an interim government with the responsibility to prepare the constitution of the country planning to borrow from IMF under PRGF? On the one hand, the government is providing complete waiver of loan for the small borrowers of banks and financial institutions at the cost of Rs. 9.2 billion and, on the other extreme, it is planning to borrow under PRGF! Bhattarai sir, we are a bit puzzled.

The mind's first step, it is said, is to distinguish what is right from what is false. But as far as Maoist speeches and programmes are concerned, the contradiction is easily visible between what has been preached and what has been practiced. Further, the minister of finance, on other occasions, has announced with open confidence that their aim is to establish a communist society in Nepal. At the same breath, it has also been explained that it may not be achieved immediately as the country is still following feudalistic pattern of society.

The question is: How is the minister of finance -- or for that matter the Maoists -- planning to move from what they call current feudalistic society to communist society where, according to Marxian prophecy, each will have according to his needs. At the theoretical level, there are two schools of thoughts. Karl Marx has explained in detail with the help of theoretical model that it is not in the nature of economics to make jump from one type of economic system to another in that it must follow a unique pattern; socialism, for example, will come only after the full development of capitalism. This view, however, was not acceptable to Lenin. In his view 'it is a reactionary way of thinking to try to find salvation in the working class in any other way but in the top-heavy development of capitalism'.

Therefore, the minister of finance and the CPN (Maoist) as well has to make it clear whether they want to follow the path of Marx or Lenin. We can not have both. Lenin believed in the prophecy of Marx but not in the historic process developed by him. For him, it was nothing but historic determinism. Lenin, therefore, tried to impose a revolution at a time and in the country where Marx had foreseen that a revolution could not take place. As a result, it is safe to conclude that Marxian theory failed in 1917 and his prophecy began to dominate. And prophecy, by nature, functioned on a long-term basis is not possible to prove. In the long run, on the other hand, we are all dead.

We are not yet sure about the overall economic policy of the CPN (Maoist).

We can have a flavour from the afore-mentioned speech if it is a genuine policy rather than a strategy of the party that Dr. Bhattarai is associated with. "We are against the idea", explains Dr. Bhattarai, "of contracting the role of the private sector. We will play the role of facilitator so that more capital can enter the market to augment industrial capital and for infrastructure development". If this is what he aims to achieve with the government role confined to that of a facilitator, it will be easy to attain, as he had hoped, the goal of "simultaneous growth of the real sector along with the booming financial sector to achieve the expected level of economic development".

But the investors -- and the general public too -- have to be convinced first that the policy measures explained by the Minister of Finance will be implemented in the same spirit as it is announced. This trust has to be earned honestly. It cannot be earned by showing the political power that the Maoists command. The ball is now on Dr. Bhattarai's court. We hope it will be translated into action.

Monday, November 10, 2008

Roundup of Economic & Business News (Oct 1 - Oct 31)

Oct 1
Nepal, India ink 29-point deal (ekantipur)
Maoists to go for people’s republic (ekantipur)
Nepal requests India for subsidised fertiliser (ekantipur)
NOC, IOC to review oil trade, pipeline (ekantipur)
World Bank to provide $36m food assistance (ekantipur)
Food crisis grips Kalikot (ArthaExpress)

Commentary
Combating load-shedding (ekantipur)

Oct 2
Hydro promoters complain of injustice (ekantipur)
Govt to reopen closed factories (ekantipur)
Bus companie rue falling business (ekantipur)
Home Minister adamant on imposing 11pm closing time for dance bars (Nepalnews)
White paper on load shedding to be presented (Nepalnews)
Air tourist arrivals rising, S Asia keeps market afloat (ArthaExpress)
NCC sits on seesaw over new Monetary Policy (ArthaExpress)

Oct 3
NOC, IOC to cooperate on ethanol-petrol mix (ekantipur)
Traders urge govt to repair highway (ekantipur)
Mero jutta ho Nepali (NepaliTimes)

Commentary
Aid and influence (NepaliTimes)
Prime Minsiter Dahal should have also rung the opening bell at the NYSE (NepaliTimes)

Oct 4
Ilam tailors reaping a windfall (ekantipur)
Minister Poudel reiterates govt's vow to produce 10,000 MW (Nepalnews)
Naumure fuels energy hope, thanks to India (ArthaExpress)

Commentary
“Recognise poultry farming as industry” (ekantipur)

Oct 5
Govt to boost supply, check black market (ekantipur)
No serious business in 125 days (ekantipur)
Use work visas: Doha embassy (ekantipur)
Apples rot in roadless Kalikot (ekantipur)
NOC to introduce 91-octane petrol (ekantipur)
Buses do brisk business as Dashain surges traffic (ArthaExpress)

Commentary
Let us be clear on 10,000mw (ekantipur)

Oct 6
Adulterated meat rampant in Parsa (ekantipur)
Inflation soars to 13pc (ekantipur)
Govt increases PLA salary (Nepalnews)

Commentary
Taking another look at land reform (ekantipur)

Oct 11
Bhattarai pleads for more int’l aid (ekantipur)
Cooking gas from waste (ekantipur)
Plight of a Nepali maid in Doha (ekantipur)
Bluebird Department Store: Leading the way (ekantipur)

Oct 12
US not to relax policy on Maoists (ekantipur)
Tourists pack hotels (ekantipur)
NAC to get two more jets in three months (ekantipur)

Oct 13
West Seti info centre vandalized (ekantipur)
Work on Koshi hospital halted (ekantipur)
Nepal wants to rejoin IMF programme (ekantipur)
HBL’s Himal Savings Account (ekantipur)
FM requests for Rs 34 billion assistance from WB (Nepalnews)
NOC rules out rollback (ArthaExpress)

Commentary
State of civil aviation (ekantipur)

Oct 14
IFC asked to buy NBL stake (ekantipur)
Trekkers to Mustang double (ekantipur)
RID to maintain round-the-clock vigil (ekantipur)
Industrialists oppose new wage rate (Nepalnews)

Oct 15
YCL ‘extort’ goat traders (ekantipur)
NOC warns of fuel shortage in Tihar (ekantipur)
Chicken, mutton prices hit new highs (ekantipur)
Chicken, mutton prices hit new highs (ArthaExpress)

Oct 16
NRN convention boosts Janakpur’s pride (ekantipur)
Nepali youth leaving in droves to seek fortune (ekantipur)
Experts racking brains to make PPP effective (ekantipur)
TeliaSonera plans more investment in Nepal: Kivisaari (ekantipur)
Oil supply ensured (ArthaExpress)
Call to boost Bhaktapur as tourist hub (ArthaExpress)
Nepali coffee to get national logo (ArthaExpress)
NOC wakes up to LPG crisis, plans to open bottling plants (ArthaExpress)

Oct 17
Strike hits Biratnagar (ekantipur)
Woo NRN investment, govt urged (ekantipur)
Bhattarai tries to justify Maoist version of 'people's republic' (Nepalnews)
FHAN’s showcase of trade prospects on Oct 19 to 25 (ArthaExpress)
EBL’s net profit up 52pc (ArthaExpress)

Commentary
Nepal's poverty partially cushions us from global recession (NepaliTimes)

Oct 18
New liquidity policy wrong: Bankers (ekantipur)

Commentary
Interview: Insurance market lacks innovative products (ekantipur)
Employing the unemployed youths (ekantipur)

Oct 19
Parliament resumes budget discussion (ekantipur)
Sand costlier than millet (ekantipur)
Zero tolerance on graft must for MDGs: UN (ekantipur)
Guthi land encroachment poses threat to cultures (ekantipur)
Stop Indian chicken: Poultry entrepreneurs (ekantipur)
NOC makes profit for first time in two years (Nepalnews)
Tottering Nepali RMG yet to recoup (ArthaExpress)

Commentary
Nepal’s development is very Kathmandu-centric (ekantipur)
No power, no progress (ekantipur)

Oct 20
NARC seeds to resist drought, flood (ekantipur)
Sugarcane farmers want more money (ekantipur)
Authorities pass the buck on taxi meter tampering (ekantipur)
Floriculture in the doldrums (ArthaExpress)
Arghakhanchi goes flush with telephone network, towers (ArthaExpress)
NT’s discount tariff rates to continue (ArthaExpress)
Space identified for street vendors (ArthaExpress)

Oct 21
No docs hired because of red tape (ekantipur)
Give palace guthi lands to Guthi Sansthan: CIAA (ekantipur)
Private parties proposed for Valley waste mgmt (ekantipur)
Nepal, India ready to amend trade treaty (ekantipur)
Korean Air adds direct flight to handle rush of workers (ekantipur)
Tourist boom in Pokhara hotels (ArthaExpress)
Outer Ring Road project awaits donor aid (ArthaExpress)

Oct 22
Mills feel chill wind of power cut (ekantipur)
Defaulting royals will get no electricity: NEA (ekantipur)
NRB tightens minimum reserve rules for banks (ekantipur)
ADB pledges Rs 8.3 billion grant aid (Nepalnews)
US provides Rs 3.3 billion in development aid to Nepal (Nepalnews)
Footpath shops to remain until Tihar (Nepalnews)

Oct 23
Dollar touches record Rs 80 mark (ekantipur)
NTA blames operators for dismal service (ekantipur)
PPP is right development approach (ekantipur)
Mega grant for waste disposal (ekantipur)
Customs dept to get inner, outer facelift (ArthaExpress)

Oct 24
Work on wind power starts (ekantipur)
Nepal expects more aid: Yadav (ekantipur)
$45m Korean aid for hydro (ekantipur)
CRR increase to stay for now: NRB (ekantipur)
Pashmina trademark soon (ekantipur)
Trekking jam in Manang (Nepalnews)

Commentary
Growing much more rice (NepaliTimes)

Oct 25
Casino workers protest raid (ekantipur)
Petrol price slashed (ekantipur)
Nightlife entrepreneurs want restrictions ended (ekantipur)
Study on dry port nearing completion (ArthaExpress)

Commentary
Interview: Nepal a very attractive market (ekantipur)

Oct 26
More Nepalis heading abroad for jobs (ekantipur)
Global slowdown costs local industries Rs 20b: CNI (ekantipur)

Oct 27
201 Nepalis off to SKorea for work (ekantipur)
Norway to provide $5m grant for IPM (ekantipur)
FNCCI threatens business strike (ekantipur)

Oct 28
Party activists loot relief materials (ekantipur)
Hospitality business thrives (ekantipur)
Businessmen face donation terror (ekantipur)
Debate over street lights payment continues (ekantipur)
Mustang apple price doubles (ekantipur)
Veggies dearer as lean season continues (ekantipur)
Factories raise green tea leaf rates (ekantipur)

Oct 31
Business as usual for street vendors (ekantipur)
Rupee up, revenue growth 16pc (ekantipur)
FNCCI demands minimum wage revision (ekantipur)
Experts discuss South Asia’s food insecurity (ArthaExpress)
Real or fake? (NepaliTimes)

Commentary
At what cost the remittance economy? (NepaliTimes)